2009 Mid-American Conference Tournament Preview

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/09/2009 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After an amazing, down to the wire finish to the regular season, the 30th Annual Mid-American Conference Tournament will begin Tuesday at the Quicken Loans Arena. The winner of this event will earn an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.

Heading into this weekend there were four teams from the East Division all tied for the top spot in the division and more importantly, the number one seed. Bowling Green came into its season-finale matchup only needing a win to collect the top seed and the MAC crowd, and the team did just that, dominating Ohio, 75-41. Bowling Green finished 11-5 in league play, tied with Buffalo which will play as the third seed in the tournament since the team was swept by BGSU on the season. Miami-Ohio and Akron were the other two teams caught up in the four-way tie, but the RedHawks fell to Buffalo in overtime and the Zips were narrowly defeated by Kent State, leaving the RedHawks, Zips and Golden Flashes all tied at 10-6 at the end of regular-season play. Miami-Ohio captured the last of the four first-round byes due to tiebreakers, and although the Golden Flashes beat Akron in the season-finale, Kent State will play as the six seed, while Akron will don the fifth spot.

Although often overlooked, the West Division also saw a race come down to the wire, as Ball State and Western Michigan were trying to claim the division title and the second seed in the tournament. Both schools came into this weekend tied for first, but with only a 7-8 mark in conference action. Neither Ball State or Western Michigan could get the job done, as both teams fell to 7-9, placing them in a tie with Central Michigan, which defeated the Broncos on Sunday. With tiebreakers coming into play the Cardinals were named West Division champs and grabbed the second seed in this event. Because Central Michigan defeated WMU, the Chippewas earned the seventh spot, while the Broncos fell all the way to the eight slot. The final four seeds belong to Ohio, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois and Toledo.

After a crazy and wild end to the regular season, expect even more fireworks once the tournament opens on Tuesday.

Opening round action will begin Tuesday afternoon when the Eastern Michigan Eagles collide with the Central Michigan Chippewas. The Eagles opened their season in terrible fashion, losing 21 of their first 24 contests. However, the Eagles are now soaring at the right time, closing out their regular season with four consecutive wins, earning the 10th-seed in the tournament. Eastern Michigan will not last long in this event however, if the team does not produce offensively, which is definitely a concern since the Eagles finished last in league play with 57.6 ppg. As for their counterpart, the Chippewas of Central Michigan, they are had trouble offensively, averaging just 62.2 ppg. The Chippewas also head into this game on a high note, winning four of their last six matchups, including two in a row. For Central Michigan to grab its third straight win the team must defeat an Eastern Michigan squad that defeated the Chippewas twice this year.

Another contest in the opening round of play will pit the sixth-seeded Kent State Golden Flashes against the 11th-seeded Northern Illinois Huskies. The Huskies did not enjoy much success this season, finishing the year with a meager 5-11 mark in conference play. NIU is averaging just 66.3 ppg on the season, and has relied mainly on the play of Darion Anderson, who is leading the team with 16.9 ppg and 5.4 rpg. The Flashes closed out their regular season with a 67-63 victory over Akron. It was the 10th win in the last 12 matchups for KSU, which captured the MAC title this past season. Since the turn of the century, the Golden Flashes have been the top team in the Mid- American Conference, playing in six title games, while winning on four different occasions.

The Ohio Bobcats and Western Michigan Broncos will get into the mix on Tuesday, as the eighth-seeded Broncos will collide with the ninth-seeded Bobcats in opening round action. The Bobcats enter this event on a downward spiral, losing five of their last six games, including three in a row. Ohio won its fourth MAC title in 2005 and currently owns a 27-23 ledger in this event. As for the Broncos, they came into their season finale with a chance to claim the West Division title, and the second seed in the tourney, but instead the team gave up a late lead to Central Michigan and fell to the eighth spot. Western Michigan close out its regular-season with nine losses in its last 12 games, and it is unlikely the team will return to the title game for the first time since 2004.

The final matchup on Tuesday will have the 12th-seeded Toledo Rockets take on the fifth-seeded Akron Zips. Toledo might have closed out its regular season with a win over Northern Illinois (74-69), but the team did not enjoy much success this year, posting a terrible 5-11 mark in league action. The Rockets have been terrible at the offensive end of the floor and come into the postseason netting just 58.1 ppg, which is only good enough for 10th in the MAC. As for the Zips, they have been on the wrong end of the last two title games, falling to Kent State and Miami-Ohio. This season Akron will try to return to the title game of this event, but it will be a tough journey for the Zips, especially since the team closed out its regular season with four losses in its last seven games.

It was not easy, but Bowling Green was able to find its way to the top of the MAC after a crazy final day of action. The Falcons, who are just 16-26 in this event all-time, finished the regular season with 10 wins in their last 13 matchups, while clinching the top spot with an 11-5 mark. Bowling Green's approach on the court is defense first, followed by timely scoring. The Falcons are holding opponents to just 60.8 ppg, but at the other end of the court the team is averaging just 64.2 ppg. The majority of the damage has been caused by Nate Miller, who is leading the team in scoring (12.7 ppg), rebounds (7.5 rpg) and steals (2.1 spg).

Grabbing the second seed solely on the fact they won the West Division are the Cardinals of Ball State. The Cardinals finished just 7-9 in conference play, and come into this event on a down note, having lost three consecutive matchups. Ball State is 11th in the MAC in scoring offense, posting just 57.9 ppg, and if the team plans on collecting its eighth championship and first since 2000, Ball State will have to improve drastically in that area. Ball State holds the best record in this event amongst teams currently in the conference (35-20), but the school has not participated in the title game since winning it all in 2000.

For the majority of the season the Buffalo Bulls had a commanding lead in the MAC, but by mid February the team's advantage began to slip away, and by the end of the regular season, Buffalo was sitting as the third seed in this event. The Bulls opened conference action on fire, and although the team with a stellar 19-10 overall record, the squad dropped five of its last seven matchups. The Bulls don't have much experience in this tournament, posting just a 5-9 all-time mark. Like most MAC teams, the Bulls were not overwhelming offensively and come into this matchup averaging just 65.5 ppg. Rodney Pierce is the lone player posting double figures (14.7 ppg) and he will need to step up his level of play substantially if the Bulls have any chance of grabbing their first-ever MAC title.

The final opening round bye belongs to the always dangerous Miami-Ohio RedHawks. Miami-Ohio has also captured 35 wins in this event, and has hoisted the trophy on four different occasions with the most recent championship run coming in 2007. The RedHawks finished the season with a 10-6 conference ledger, but stumbled down the stretch, losing four of their last six contests. Miami-Ohio's success usually stems from its tenacious defensive play, and once again that is true, as the RedHawks are limiting opponents to a league-best 58.4 ppg.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

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A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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